In Aspirational Futures: Integrating Aspirations and Fears in Collective Futures Building, Marguerite Grandjean summarizes the Aspirational Futures method and several of our projects for a project by Futuribles International and CAP Prospective, who are working to create a toolkit of approaches, methods and techniques of strategic foresight. This new report covers two projects that Marguerite led during her time at IAF: the World Scenarios to 2030 for the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), and the Agriculture and Food Justice in Peru: Scenarios for 2030 for Oxfam America and Oxfam Peru.
For your convenience, we present the scenario abstracts below:
World Scenarios to 2030 for IEEE
Scenario 1: Smart Technologies, Missed Opportunities
The combination of big data and social networks creates high-quality knowledge technologies and networks around the world. However, leaders and communities fail to use them to address the grand challenges of the twenty-first century.
Scenario 2: Info, Info Everywhere (and Not a Drop to Drink)
A small number of powerful entities create and control advanced analytics that turn information into knowledge. Most people lack access to these sophisticated tools for making sense of the ever-increasing reams of information.
Scenario 3: An Integrated Knowledge Network
Visionary leaders facilitate the creation of a highly integrated global knowledge network that is accessible to all. The network combines advanced analytics and human expertise to create high-quality knowledge, and increasingly, wisdom, in order to alleviate global challenges.
Scenario 4: Distributed Talent for Good
Rising unemployment and shifts in societal expectations undermine traditional organizational structures, thus pushing most associations and many other organizations to the brink of extinction. However, a handful of these associations reinvent themselves as networks of autonomous entities united by a common purpose.
Agriculture and Food Justice in Peru: Scenarios for 2030 for Oxfam America and Oxfam Peru
Scenario 1: Progress at the Margins
Peru makes some progress in poverty reduction and food justice, but these efforts are inadequate to address challenges related to climate change and food prices.
Scenario 2: A Harvest of Inequity
The gap widens between large-scale agribusinesses, which own more land and are able to deploy advanced technologies, and smallholder farmers, who face climate change effects and lack access to these advances.
Scenario 3: Sustainable Future, Timeless Past
Facing an increase in social unrest at the local level, policymakers set the goal of establishing an equitable distribution of productive resources between large-scale and small-scale agriculture.
Scenario 4: The Peruvian Way
Following a series of environmental crises, Peruvians initiate a national dialogue to chart the country’s future. A series of efforts, dubbed “the Peruvian way,” achieve food justice by combining the best of indigenous techniques with the best of modern technology.