Scenarios for primary care in 2025 and recommendations for working toward a preferred future
Forecasts by numerous health care experts strongly suggest that primary care is likely to be very different from what we experience today. While the recent health care reform legislation is driving change from a policy level, developments in technology, disease knowledge, health care financing, care protocols and modalities, and other areas are transforming the field of primary care. As these changes unfold, it will be essential for policy-makers, public health officials, health care providers, and others to understand the alternative paths that 21st century primary care could take.
IAF has developed Primary Care 2025: A Scenario Exploration, a set of scenarios describing the alternative futures of primary care in the U.S. in the year 2025. These scenarios consider the nation’s economic challenges, political polarization, and opportunities afforded by disruptive technological advances and new delivery systems. The report includes implications and recommendations based on the scenarios, developed at a National Workshop of leaders. The scenarios help organizations, associations, and communities to gain greater understanding of the challenges facing primary care as well as the options we may have in the years to comeThis project is supported by a grant from the Kresge Foundation as part of the foundation’s mission to improve the delivery and financing of health care in the United States. Policy-makers can use the scenarios to help them anticipate changes that affect policy and legislation. Health care providers can use the scenarios as a basis for strategic thinking and to help ensure that they are working toward their preferred future of primary care.
Scenario Workshop Toolkit:
In addition to the full report, IAF has developed a scenario toolkit (700 KB) and slides (5.7 MB) to help organizations, health care providers, and communities to conduct scenario planning exercises and consider the implications of these Primary Care 2025 Scenarios for their own strategies and operations.
IAF typically conducts a poll at its scenario workshops, asking participates to vote on the likelihood and preferability of the scenarios. PBS has turned this exercise into a national poll for IAF’s Primary Care 2025 Scenarios. The poll has ended but the results, as well as brief summaries and videos that describe the nature of primary care for the same patient in each of the scenarios, are available on the PBS NewsHour website at http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2012/01/gazing-into-2025-pick-your-health-care-adventure.html#.